Arthsree.in · Investor Intelligence
Volume 01 · Issue 10
Week of March 2–6, 2026
Published: March 8, 2026
By Pradeep · AMFI Registered MFD, Pradeep (ARN: 330011)

The Week
That Was

Indian Equity Market Weekly Roundup

24,450
Nifty 50 Close
▼ 2.51%
Weekly Decline
78,919
Sensex Close
▼ 2.43%
Sensex Weekly
$87.66
Brent Crude Peak
Editor's Note
This was a week Dalal Street would rather forget. A perfect storm of escalating Middle East conflict, a 20-month surge in crude oil, and relentless institutional selling combined to deliver the worst weekly performance in over a year. But as always, within the carnage lay opportunities — if you knew where to look.
Market Overview

Bears Tightened Their Grip as Oil Roared

Indian equity markets posted their steepest weekly losses in well over a year during the truncated four-session week of March 2–6, 2026. With markets closed on Tuesday for Holi, trading reopened to a brutal gap-down on Wednesday — and the bulls were unable to mount a sustained recovery.

The Nifty 50 shed approximately 645 points or ~2.5% over the week, closing at 24,450 — its lowest level since April 2025 — while the BSE Sensex plunged ~1,950 points or ~2.4%, settling at 78,919. Both indices are now down roughly 5–6% year-to-date, underperforming most global peers.

The primary trigger was the escalating military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. Brent crude surged to a 20-month high of $87.66 per barrel. For India, which imports over 85% of its crude oil, this is a three-way blow: imported inflation, a wider current account deficit, and delayed RBI rate cuts.

Nifty 50 — Daily Movement (Week of Mar 2–6, 2026)
Closing levels across 4 trading sessions
Day-by-Day Recap

A Week in Four Acts

DateNifty CloseChangeSensex CloseKey Theme
Mon, Mar 224,866▼ 1.24%80,239Crude spike, FII outflows
Tue, Mar 3Market Closed — Holi Holiday
Wed, Mar 424,481▼ 1.55%79,116Gap-down open; oil & Iran fears
Thu, Mar 524,766▲ 1.17%80,016Iran diplomacy hopes; short-covering
Fri, Mar 624,450▼ 1.27%78,919Bears return; banking selloff
Sectoral Performance

Banks Bore the Brunt; Defence Shone

Of the 16 major sectoral indices, 15 closed in the red for the week. Banking and financial services bore the brunt of the selloff, as investors worried elevated crude prices could fan inflation and defer RBI rate cuts. Defence stocks bucked the trend sharply — gaining nearly 6% on geopolitical tailwinds and new order flows.

Sectoral Performance — Week of March 2–6, 2026
Approximate weekly % change by sector
Stock Movers

Winners & Losers of the Week

▲ Top Gainers
StockMove
Paras Defence+7.5%
Mazagon Dock+5.0%
DCX Systems+7%+
United Breweries+6.5%
IndusInd Bank+3.3%
Coal India+2.0%+
▼ Top Losers
StockMove
Petronet LNG−9.0%+
Eternal (Zomato)−8.6%
Tata Steel−6.8%
Tech Mahindra−6.8%
ICICI Bank−3.4%
HDFC Bank−2%+
Institutional Flows

FIIs Sold; DIIs Held the Fort

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained persistent net sellers through the week, continuing a trend that has seen a record ₹1,66,283 crore exit Indian equities in 2025. On Monday alone, FIIs offloaded equities worth over ₹3,296 crore. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) — buoyed by steady SIP flows — stepped in as consistent buyers, cushioning the fall.

Institutional Flows — Estimated (₹ Crore)
FII net selling vs DII net buying across the week
FII Net
DII Net
Key Stories

What Drove the Markets

Geopolitics

US–Iran Conflict Sends Crude to 20-Month Highs

Escalating strikes involving the US, Israel, and Iran pushed Brent crude to $87.66/bbl. Near-total suspension of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz spooked global markets. India, importing 85%+ of its crude, faces the dual hit of higher inflation and a wider current account deficit.

Energy

Petronet LNG Declares Force Majeure

Petronet LNG declared force majeure on LNG shipments from QatarEnergy due to Strait of Hormuz security risks, sending the stock plunging over 9%. The disruption raised concerns about India's LNG-dependent power and fertiliser sectors.

Banking

RBI Assures Stability of IndusInd Bank

The RBI publicly assured IndusInd Bank's stability and initiated remedial steps to address earlier accounting discrepancies. The stock rebounded 3.3% on the back of this statement.

Defence

Defence Stocks Surge on Geopolitical Tailwinds

The Nifty Defence index surged ~6% even as the broader market bled. Paras Defence rose 7.5% after an MoU with South Korea's Green Optics, while Mazagon Dock climbed 5%+ on a ₹99,000 crore naval deal.

Insurance / Banking

SEBI Regulatory Proposals Weigh on Banks

Regulators floated guidelines requiring banks to ensure customers voluntarily choose insurance products. Banking and insurance stocks came under pressure as investors evaluated potential non-interest income hits.

Macro

GDP Growth Revised Upward to 7.8%

Statistical method revisions pushed India's GDP growth estimate upward to 7.8%, reflecting underlying economic resilience even as markets corrected. The figure underscores India's long-term growth story.

Broader Market

Mid & Small Caps Showed Relative Resilience

24,450
Nifty 50
78,919
Sensex
57,783
Bank Nifty
−3.1%
Nifty Midcap 100 (Wk)
19.88
India VIX (Fri Close)
+5.9%
Nifty Defence (Wk)

Broader markets fared relatively better on some sessions — the Nifty Midcap declined 0.7% and the Smallcap index slipped just 0.24% on Friday alone, demonstrating that domestic retail participation is still providing cushion.

Year-to-Date Performance: India vs Global Peers
Approximate YTD % as of March 6, 2026

Mutual Funds

SIPs Hold Steady While Equity Flows Moderate

Even as equity markets sold off sharply through the week, India's mutual fund industry continued to demonstrate its characteristic structural resilience. The most recent AMFI data (January 2026) painted a nuanced picture: SIP contributions remained robust at ₹31,002 crore, SIP accounts crossed the 10.29 crore mark, and industry AUM crossed the ₹81 lakh crore milestone for the first time. However, equity inflows moderated for the second consecutive month, with investors rotating toward gold and debt amid volatility.

₹81.01L Cr
Industry AUM (Jan '26)
₹31,002 Cr
SIP Monthly Flows
10.29 Cr
Total SIP Accounts
26.63 Cr
Total MF Folios
Equity Fund Inflows by Category — January 2026 (₹ Crore)
Source: AMFI · Flexi-Cap dominates; ELSS sees outflows
Deep Dive

What the MF Data Tells Us

📉
Equity Flows Cooling

Net equity inflows fell 14% MoM to ₹24,028 crore in January — the second successive monthly decline and a steep 39% drop YoY. The peak of ₹42,702 crore in July 2025 feels distant. Mid-cap and small-cap fund inflows declined 24% and 23% respectively, reflecting investor caution after double-digit corrections in these categories.

🟡
Gold ETFs Steal the Show

In a historic first, Gold ETF inflows of ₹24,040 crore in January almost exactly matched equity fund inflows — up 106% from December. This marks the first instance in AMFI history where gold ETF flows approached equity flows, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.

💪
SIPs: The Unsung Hero

SIP flows of ₹31,002 crore remained broadly stable. Total SIP accounts surpassed 10.29 crore, with ~74 lakh new SIPs registered in January. SIP assets now account for 20.2% of total industry AUM — a structural milestone that makes Indian markets more resilient to FII selling.

🔄
Debt Funds Bounce Back

After two months of massive outflows totalling ₹1.58 lakh crore, debt funds staged a strong reversal with ₹74,827 crore in inflows in January. Overnight and liquid funds led the charge, while gilt funds attracted marginal but notable inflows — a tell-tale sign that rate-cut positioning is underway.

SIP Monthly Inflows — Trend (₹ Crore)
Consistent above ₹26,000 Cr since mid-2025 · Jan 2026: ₹31,002 Cr
🧭 Arthsree View: What Should MF Investors Do Now?

The ongoing market correction is exactly the environment SIPs are designed for. Rupee-cost averaging is working in investors' favour — every instalment buys more units at lower prices. Here is our framework for current conditions:

CONTINUEAll active SIPs — market dips accumulate units at a discount. Do not pause or cancel.
CONSIDERLump-sum top-ups in Flexi-Cap or Large & Mid-Cap funds at current levels if you have a 3–5 year horizon.
WATCHGold ETFs for a 5–10% portfolio hedge. January's record inflows signal smart money is already moving in.
AVOIDSectoral/thematic fund lump-sums until macro visibility improves, especially energy, metals, and IT themes.
Fund Category Snapshot

Category-Wise Flow & Performance (Jan '26)

CategoryJan '26 Inflow (₹ Cr)MoM ChangeInvestor Signal
Flexi-Cap7,672▼ 23.4%Highest equity category; still preferred
Midcap3,185▼ 24%Caution as index corrected ~14% from peak
Large & Mid-Cap3,181Steady interest; quality bias emerging
Small-Cap2,942▼ 23%Flows resilient despite sharp index correction
Large-Cap2,005▲ 28%Flight to quality; gaining share
Focused Funds1,556▲ 47%Active management preference rising
Gold ETFs24,040▲ 106%Record inflows; safe-haven rush
ELSS−594 (outflow)Tax-season profit booking
Debt — Liquid30,682▲ StrongParking short-term money; rate cut wait
Week Ahead

What to Watch Next Week

Volatility is unlikely to abate quickly. With geopolitical tensions still elevated and crude prices above $85/bbl, India's macro vulnerabilities — imported inflation, rupee pressure, and delayed rate cut expectations — remain front and centre. Analysts broadly see the Nifty range at 24,000–25,000.

  • Geopolitical developments: Any de-escalation in US-Iran conflict could trigger a sharp relief rally. Watch Strait of Hormuz shipping news closely.
  • Crude oil trajectory: Sustained above $85 keeps inflationary pressure alive and RBI hawkish. A pullback below $80 would be a major positive trigger.
  • FII flows: Continued FII selling remains the single largest near-term risk. Watch daily cash market data closely.
  • RBI policy signalling: With crude elevated, any RBI communication will be scrutinised for clues on the rate cut timeline.
  • US–India trade discussions: Bilateral trade developments may influence sentiment in export-oriented sectors.
  • Technical levels: Nifty must hold above 24,150 to prevent a fresh leg of selling. Resistance at 24,800 and 25,000.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is published by Arthsree.in for informational and educational purposes only. The content herein is compiled from publicly available sources and is not intended as investment advice, a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or a recommendation of any kind. Arthsree.in, its editors, and contributors are not registered investment advisors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers are advised to conduct their own due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Market data and figures used in this publication may be subject to minor rounding differences and are based on best available information at the time of writing.
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Data sources: NSE India, BSE, AMFI, Business Standard, Outlook Money, IIFL
Next edition: March 15, 2026